Falling of dollar really or fiction?

Calculations show that almost in all banks of the central Europe, and in particular in banks of Russia the relative margin of exchange operations with US dollar is much lower, than with other currencies, including euro, yen and yuan. It convincingly testifies to big reliability of the American currency and disproves opinion on possible replacement of dollar with other currencies. Weakening of the American dollar leaves nobody indifferent - behind it too many costs. At first sight, apparently, that the whole world slowly but surely prepares for refusal of the American dollar. Whether so it? If it so, what we receive in exchange? All commercial banks trade in several most widespread and "serious" currencies. Thus the particular interest is represented by margin size, i.e. differences between a selling rate and a buying rate. The matter is that the size of a margin shows profitability of operation with this currency, and profitability is quite simply connected with riskiness of operation: the more the risk, the is more profitability. In case of the elementary exchange operations the risk almost completely is defined by degree of liquidity of currency. Respectively quite simple rule acts on practice: the currency, the more its liquidity is more reliable, the it is less risks at carrying out with it than exchange operations, the more wishing to perform such operations and that operation less than a rate of return. For definiteness we will take exchange parameters of Sberbank of Russia for 25.07.2008 and we will calculate a relative margin, i.e. margin percentage to a buying rate. It appears, the lowest relative margin at the American dollar and makes 1,29 %. At euro the margin is much higher – 1,37 % that says that commercial banks of the country, despite all peripetias with dollar, trust it much more, than uniform European currency. For euro there is the British pound sterling with relative marches to 4,34 %, i.e. its liquidity in 3,4 times is lower, than at US dollar and in 3,2 times – than at euro. It is necessary to tell that in other commercial banks of the country advantage of US dollar in comparison with euro is even more impressive. And if it so to tell about replacement of the American dollar with the European bank notes while it is obviously premature: the world trusts eurocurrency less, than to dollar. Now some words about the approaching "great" Chinese yuan. First, this currency in general while in few places is converted. Secondly, if such operations also are carried out, they are characterized really monstrous marches. So, in many banks of Russia and the central Europe the relative margin of yuan makes 8,21 % that speaks about unwillingness of commercial banks to operate with this monetary unit. Actually it is a question that riskiness of the Chinese yuan in 6 with superfluous time is higher, than dollar. And with such indicator of a margin to yuan obviously rather early to apply for a role of world currency. It is possible to tell so: banks work with the Chinese currency, but for operations with it take such bribe that it calls into question about expediency of similar exchange operations.Under all these figures there is one simple phenomenon: the world and Russia in particular trust the American economy much more, than the Chinese, Japanese, Canadian, Australian, British or Swiss economy. And, therefore, and to speak about falling of US dollar it is possible as much as necessary, but the worthy alternative to it doesn't exist.